National Bureau of Statistics of China

18 October, 2024

In the first three quarters, in face of the complicated and severe external environment and the new situations as well as new problems of domestic economic development, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, strengthened macro regulation, deepened reform and opening-up, expanded domestic demand, optimized economic structure, effectively implemented existing policies and accelerated to introduce incremental policies. As a result, the national economy was generally stable with steady progress, featuring steady increase of production and demands, generally stable employment and prices, effectively promoted well-being of people, steady growth of new quality productive forces, and solid progress in high-quality development. In September, most of the indicators in production and demands improved, market expectation was boosted, and positive factors promoting the recovery of economy were accumulated.

According to preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first three quarters of 2024 reached 94,974.6 billion yuan, up by 4.8 percent year on year at constant price. By industry, the value added of the primary industry was 5,773.3 billion yuan, up by 3.4 percent year on year; that of the secondary industry was 36,136.2 billion yuan, up by 5.4 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 53,065.1 billion yuan, up by 4.7 percent. By quarter, the GDP for the first quarter grew by 5.3 percent year on year, up by 4.7 percent for the second quarter and up by 4.6 percent for the third quarter. The GDP for the third quarter increased by 0.9 percent quarter on quarter.

1. Agriculture Production Witnessed Good Momentum and Animal Husbandry was Generally Stable.

In the first three quarters, the value added of agriculture (crop farming) went up by 3.7 percent year on year. The total output of summer grain and early rice was 177.95 million tons, 3.46 million tons more than that of last year, an increase of 2.0 percent. The autumn harvest went smoothly and another bumper harvest is to be expected for the year. In the first three quarters, the output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was 70.44 million tons, up by 1.0 percent year on year. Of this total, the output of beef and poultry grew by 4.6 percent and 6.4 percent respectively, while that of pork and mutton dropped by 1.4 percent and 2.2 percent respectively. The output of milk dropped by 0.1 percent and that of eggs went up by 3.5 percent. At the end of the third quarter, the number of pigs registered in stock was 426.94 million, down by 3.5 percent year on year. In the first three quarters, 520.30 million pigs were slaughtered, down by 3.2 percent.

2. Industrial Production Registered Stable Growth and Equipment Manufacturing and High-tech Manufacturing Grew Fast.

The total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 5.8 percent year on year in the first three quarters. In terms of sectors, the value added of mining increased by 2.9 percent year on year, that of manufacturing increased by 6.0 percent, and that of production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water increased by 6.3 percent. The value added of equipment manufacturing grew by 7.5 percent year on year, and that of high-tech manufacturing up by 9.1 percent, 1.7 percentage points and 3.3 percentage points faster than that of the whole industrial enterprises above the designated size respectively. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of state holding enterprises was up by 4.3 percent year on year; that of share-holding enterprises was up by 6.1 percent; that of enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan was up by 3.9 percent; and that of private enterprises was up by 5.5 percent. In terms of products, the production of new-energy vehicles, integrated circuits and 3D printing devices went up by 33.8 percent, 26.0 percent and 25.4 percent year on year respectively. In September, the total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size went up by 5.4 percent year on year, 0.9 percentage points faster than that of the previous month, or up by 0.59 percent month on month. In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 49.8 percent, 0.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The Production and Operation Expectation Index was 52.0 percent. In the first eight months, the total profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size were 4,652.7 billion yuan, up by 0.5 percent year on year.

3. Service Sector Continued to Recover and Modern Services Enjoyed Sound Development.

In the first three quarters, the value added of services went up by 4.7 percent year on year. Specifically, the value added of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, transport, storage and postal services, accommodation and catering, and wholesale and retail grew by 11.3 percent, 10.1 percent, 6.8 percent, 6.3 percent and 5.4 percent respectively. In September, the Index of Services Production increased by 5.1 percent year on year, 0.5 percentage points faster than that of the previous month. Specifically, the Index of Services Production of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and financial intermediation went up by 11.4 percent, 9.7 percent and 6.5 percent respectively. In the first eight months, the business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size grew by 7.7 percent year on year. In September, the Business Activity Index for Services stood at 49.9 percent. The Business Activity Expectation Index for Services was 54.6 percent. Among which, the Business Activity Index for industries like postal services, telecommunication, broadcast, television and satellite transmission services, internet software and information technology services, and monetary and financial services were within the high expansion range of 55.0 percent and above.

4. Market Sales Kept Growing and Sales of Upgraded Goods Witnessed Good Momentum.

In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 35,356.4 billion yuan, up by 3.3 percent year on year. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas reached 30,586.9 billion yuan, up by 3.2 percent year on year, and that in rural areas stood at 4,769.5 billion yuan, up by 4.4 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the retail sales of goods were 31,414.9 billion yuan, up by 3.0 percent; the income of catering was 3,941.5 billion yuan, up by 6.2 percent. Certain basic living goods and upgraded goods enjoyed good sales. The retail sales of grain, oil and food and of beverage by enterprises above the designated size went up by 9.9 percent and 4.5 percent respectively, and that of communication equipment and of sports and recreational articles grew by 11.9 percent and 9.7 percent respectively. The online retail sales reached 10,893.0 billion yuan, up by 8.6 percent year on year. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods were 9,072.1 billion yuan, up by 7.9 percent, accounting for 25.7 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods went up by 3.2 percent year on year, 1.1 percentage points faster than that of the previous month, or up by 0.39 percent month on month. The sales of automobiles and household appliances witnessed good momentum. In September, the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, communication equipment, and cultural and office supplies by enterprises above the designated size increased by 20.5 percent, 12.3 percent and 10.0 percent respectively; that of automobile and furniture both increased by 0.4 percent, with the growth rate shifting from negative to positive. In the first three quarters, the retail sales of services went up by 6.7 percent year on year.

5. Investment in Fixed Assets Continued to Scale up and Investment in High-Tech Industries Grew Fast.

In the first three quarters, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 37,897.8 billion yuan, up by 3.4 percent year on year. The investment in fixed assets was up by 7.7 percent with the investment in real estate development deducted. Specifically, the investment in infrastructure grew by 4.1 percent; that in manufacturing grew by 9.2 percent; and that in real estate development dropped by 10.1 percent. The floor space of newly-built commercial buildings sold was 702.84 million square meters, down by 17.1 percent year on year, a decline narrowed by 1.9 percentage points and 0.9 percentage points respectively compared with that in the first half year and in the first eight months; and the total sales of newly-built commercial buildings were 6,888.0 billion yuan, down by 22.7 percent, a decline narrowed by 2.3 percentage points and 0.9 percentage points respectively compared with that in the first half year and in the first eight months. By industry, the investment in the primary industry went up by 2.3 percent year on year, that in the secondary industry up by 12.3 percent, and that in the tertiary industry down by 0.7 percent. The private investment declined by 0.2 percent, or up by 6.4 percent with the investment in real estate development deducted. The investment in high-tech industries grew by 10.0 percent year on year, of which the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services grew by 9.4 percent and 11.4 percent respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, the investment in manufacturing of aerospace vehicle and equipment and in manufacturing of electronic and communication equipment grew by 34.1 percent and 10.3 percent respectively. In terms of high-tech services, the investment in professional technical services, e-commerce services and services for transformation of scientific and technological achievements grew by 31.8 percent, 14.8 percent and 14.8 percent respectively. In September, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 0.65 percent month on month.

6. Imports and Exports of Goods Grew Fast and Trade Structure Continued to Optimize.

In the first three quarters, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 32,325.2 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3 percent year on year. The total value of exports was 18,614.7 billion yuan, up by 6.2 percent. The total value of imports was 13,710.4 billion yuan, up by 4.1 percent. The trade balance was 4,904.3 billion yuan in surplus. The imports and exports by private enterprises grew by 9.4 percent, accounting for 55.0 percent of the total value of imports and exports, 2.1 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. The imports and exports with the Belt and Road partner countries grew by 6.3 percent, accounting for 47.1 percent of the total value of imports and exports. The exports of mechanical and electrical products grew by 8.0 percent, accounting for 59.3 percent of the total value of exports. In September, the total value of imports and exports was 3,748.0 billion yuan, up by 0.7 percent year on year. Specifically, the total value of exports was 2,165.3 billion yuan, up by 1.6 percent; the total value of imports was 1,582.7 billion yuan, down by 0.5 percent.

7. Consumer Price Grew Mildly and Producer Prices for Industrial Products Declined.

In the first three quarters, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.3 percent year on year, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the first half year. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went down by 0.4 percent; clothing up by 1.5 percent; housing up by 0.1 percent; articles and services for daily use up by 0.7 percent; transportation and communication down by 1.3 percent; education, culture and recreation up by 1.7 percent; medical services and health care up by 1.4 percent; and other articles and services up by 3.4 percent. In terms of food, tobacco and alcohol prices, the price for fresh fruits went down by 4.7 percent, grain up by 0.2 percent, fresh vegetables up by 3.3 percent, and pork up by 5.8 percent. The core CPI excluding the prices of food and energy grew by 0.5 percent year on year. In September, the CPI went up by 0.4 percent year on year, or maintained the same level month on month.

In the first three quarters, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 2.0 percent year on year, with the decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared with that of the first half year. Specifically, the prices in September dropped by 2.8 percent year on year, or down by 0.6 percent month on month. In the first three quarters, the purchasing prices for industrial producers went down by 2.1 percent year on year. Specifically in September, the prices dropped by 2.2 percent year on year, or down by 0.8 percent month on month.

8. Employment was Generally Stable and Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate Declined Slightly.

In the first three quarters, the urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.1 percent, down by 0.2 percentage points over that of the same period last year. In September, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1 percent, 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The surveyed unemployment rate of population with local household registration was 5.2 percent and that of population with non-local household registration was 4.8 percent, of which, the rate of population with non-local agricultural household registration stood at 4.6 percent. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.1 percent, 0.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The employees of enterprises worked 48.8 hours per week on average. By the end of the third quarter, the number of rural migrant workers totaled 190.14 million, up by 1.3 percent year on year.

9. Household Income Continued to Grow and Income Growth of Rural Households Outpaced That of Urban Households.

In the first three quarters, the nationwide per capita disposable income of households was 30,941 yuan, a nominal growth of 5.2 percent year on year; the real growth was 4.9 percent after deducting price factors. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 41,183 yuan, a nominal growth of 4.5 percent year on year and a real growth of 4.2 percent; the per capita disposable income of rural households was 16,740 yuan, a nominal growth of 6.6 percent year on year and a real growth of 6.3 percent. In terms of income sources, the nationwide per capita salary income, net business income, net property income and net income from transfers grew by 5.7 percent, 6.4 percent, 1.2 percent and 4.9 percent in nominal terms respectively. The median of the nationwide per capita disposable income of households was 25,978 yuan with a nominal growth of 5.9 percent year on year.

Generally speaking, the national economy was generally stable with steady progress in the first three quarters, and the effects of policies continued to manifest with major indicators showing positive changes recently. However, we should be aware that the external environment is increasingly complicated and severe, and the foundation for sound economic recovery and growth still needs to be strengthened. At the next stage, we must follow the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, fully implement the guiding principles of the 20th CPC National Congress and the Second and Third Plenary Sessions of the 20th CPC Central Committee, strictly implement the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhere to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, fully and faithfully apply the new development philosophy on all fronts, and accelerate the efforts to create a new pattern of development. We must intensify the synergy of existing and incremental policies, advance the implementation and delivery of policies, consolidate and enhance the momentum for economic recovery and growth, so as to achieve the annual targets of economic and social development.

Notes:

1. The growth rate of GDP and its sub-items are calculated at constant prices. The growth rates of value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are calculated at comparable prices. Both are real growth rates. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

2. According to the auto-revision function of the seasonal adjustment model, revisions are made to quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP and to month-on-month changes of the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), and total retail sales of consumer goods. The revised figures, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for the third quarter of 2024 and month-on-month changes of other indicators for September 2024 are as follows:

The quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP in 2023 and in the first, the second and the third quarters of 2024 are 1.8 percent, 0.7 percent, 1.5 percent, 1.3 percent, 1.5 percent, 0.5 percent and 0.9 percent respectively.

3. Industrial enterprises above designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan.

As industrial enterprises above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of products output, is as consistent as possible with the current period and different from the coverage of the data published last year. The main reasons are as follows: First, the statistical units change. Every year, some enterprises are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises are removed from the survey because of downsizing. Besides, enterprises that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, canceled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact. Second, duplicated outputs across regions of enterprise groups have been removed based on the ad hoc surveys since duplication is found in the products output of some enterprise groups.

4. The Index of Services Production is the change of production in the reporting period compared to the base period with the price factors deducted.

5. The scope of the total retail sales of consumer goods includes all legal entities, establishments and self-employed individuals involved in retail trades or providing catering services. Specifically, businesses above the designated size include wholesale enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals), retail enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.

As the wholesale, retail, and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of the retail sales of consumer goods by businesses above the designated size is consistent with the current period and different from the coverage of data published last year. The main reasons are: some enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) are removed from the survey because of downsizing every year. Besides, enterprises (businesses, self-employed individuals) that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, canceled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact.

Online retail sales refer to the retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtual goods and services).

The total retail sales of consumer goods include the online retail sales of physical goods, but not the non-physical goods.

6. The retail sales of services refer to the total value of services directly provided by enterprises (establishments, self-employed units) to individuals and other units for non-production and non-operating purposes in the form of transactions. It aims to reflect the value of services with the nature of consumption sold by service providers in monetary terms, including the retail sales of services in transportation, accommodation, catering, education, health, sports, entertainment, and other fields.

7. The growth rates of investment in fixed assets are calculated on a comparable basis.

8. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs.

9. Employed people refer to people aged 16 and above who have the ability to work and engage in gainful employment for remuneration payment or business income.

10. The median of the nationwide per capita disposable income of households refers to the per capita disposable income of households which lies in the middle of all surveyed households ranked from low to high on the basis of per capita disposable income level.

11. Due to the rounding-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail.